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512 Options

Options · Started Mar 2015

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
13.9%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
34
Win Trades
76.5%
Profit Factor
5.60
Win Months
50.4%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201511.84.3-5.113.7-18.75.443.0-2.2-0.2-27.78.7
2016150.1-0.6-5.8-4.0-5.638.2-12.0-1.1-8.06.7-10.46.0138.2
2017-6.7-14.024.73.912.9-11.6-6.622.1-4.16.9-8.64.916.5
2018-7.14.1-0.70.2-23.9-13.910.0-9.716.144.2-6.912.09.4
2019-9.1-18.8-3.23.70.47.10.017.68.01.24.1-7.8-1.8
2020-5.8-2.011.7-18.6-5.4-8.5-6.51.8-3.5-13.4-38.6-48.5-81.7
2021-1.4-9.4157.419.16.313.721.3-23.65.324.79.7-12.8285.6
202225.1-1.3-10.68.126.2-13.811.8-0.65.24.50.0-2.454.7
2023-2.81.16.2-4.2-4.02.01.65.41.92.2-4.2-7.5-3.1
20242.3-7.56.43.81.8-0.6-3.3-10.0-1.94.85.75.25.3
2025-0.90.73.30.53.3-4.28.1-0.4-0.2-3.21.47.716.3
2026-1.00.62.5-3.50.6-1.1-0.41.99.1

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began3/4/2015
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age141 months
What it tradesOptions
# Trades34
# Profitable26
% Profitable76.5%
Avg trade duration738.3 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodDec 17, 2020 - Dec 26, 2020
Annual Return (Compounded)13.9%
Avg win$16,443
Avg loss$9,576

Ratios

W:L ratio5.58
Sharpe Ratio0.23
Sortino Ratio0.39
Calmar Ratio0.96

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.21
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life271.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)86.3%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)13.9%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)14.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.8%
Percent Trades Stocks0.2%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)6.7%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$9,576
Avg Win$16,443
# Winners26
Sum Trade PL (losers)$76,610
Sum Trade PL (winners)$427,512
Num Months Winners70
# Losers8
% Winners76.5%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct250

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table139

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)1063176.50
Avg Position Time (hrs)17719.61
Avg Trade Length738.30
Last Trade Ago4002

Regression

Alpha0
Beta-1.62
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.06
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.03
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.04
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.07
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades1.08
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.56
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats29.30
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats44.87
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.92
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.17
Hold-and-Hope Ratio1.19

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean1.75
SD1.96
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.89
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.87
df25
t1.31
p0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.24
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.49
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.22
Sortino ratio2.92
Upside Potential Ratio4.52
Upside part of mean2.71
Downside part of mean-0.96
Upside SD1.89
Downside SD0.60
N nonnegative terms16
N negative terms10
N of observations26
Mean of predictor0.57
Mean of criterion1.75
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion1.96
Covariance0.14
r0.21
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.16
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.08
Mean Square Error3.83
DF error24
t(b)1.05
p(b)0.15
t(a)0.74
p(a)0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta3.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.96
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha4.12
Treynor index (mean / b)1.51
Jensen alpha (a)1.08
Mean0.61
SD1.42
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.43
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.42
df25
t0.63
p0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.91
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.76
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.92
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.75
Sortino ratio0.68
Upside Potential Ratio2.08
Upside part of mean1.87
Downside part of mean-1.26
Upside SD1.08
Downside SD0.90
N nonnegative terms16
N negative terms10
N of observations26
Mean of predictor0.51
Mean of criterion0.61
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion1.42
Covariance0.03
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.29
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.46
Mean Square Error2.10
DF error24
t(b)0.34
p(b)0.37
t(a)0.43
p(a)0.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.76
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.68
Treynor index (mean / b)2.10
Jensen alpha (a)0.46
VaR(95%)0.46
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.54
VaR(95%)0.15
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.32
Mean49492.96
SD52580.02
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.94
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.94
df587
t1.41
p0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.25
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.37
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.25
Sortino ratio36654.53
Upside Potential Ratio36659.77
Upside part of mean49500.04
Downside part of mean-7.07
Upside SD52624.20
Downside SD1.35
N nonnegative terms283
N negative terms305
N of observations588
Mean of predictor0.61
Mean of criterion49492.96
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion52580.02
Covariance204.68
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)1645.69
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)48494.66
Mean Square Error2769039360
DF error586
t(b)0.27
p(b)0.39
t(a)1.37
p(a)0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-10449.83
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta13741.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-20882.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha117871.60
Treynor index (mean / b)30.07
Jensen alpha (a)48494.67
Mean0.65
SD14.38
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.05
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.04
df587
t0.07
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.35
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.26
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.35
Sortino ratio0.07
Upside Potential Ratio1.69
Upside part of mean16.81
Downside part of mean-16.16
Upside SD10.38
Downside SD9.94
N nonnegative terms283
N negative terms305
N of observations588
Mean of predictor0.54
Mean of criterion0.65
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion14.38
Covariance-0.16
r-0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.26
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.33
Mean Square Error207.04
DF error586
t(b)-0.76
p(b)0.78
t(a)0.14
p(a)0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-4.52
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-17.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha20.28
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.51
Jensen alpha (a)1.33
VaR(95%)0.77
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.83
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.14
Mean5.81
SD1.92
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.03
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)3.02
df130
t2.14
p0.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.82
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.22
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.81
Sortino ratio9.72
Upside Potential Ratio16.74
Upside part of mean10.01
Downside part of mean-4.19
Upside SD1.85
Downside SD0.60
N nonnegative terms59
N negative terms72
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.41
Mean of criterion5.81
SD of predictor0.49
SD of criterion1.92
Covariance-0.17
r-0.19
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.73
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)6.84
Mean Square Error3.58
DF error129
t(b)-2.15
p(b)0.62
t(a)2.52
p(a)0.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha12.21
Treynor index (mean / b)-8.00
Jensen alpha (a)6.84
Mean4.36
SD1.59
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.75
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.73
df130
t1.94
p0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.53
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.06
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.52
Sortino ratio6.78
Upside Potential Ratio13.61
Upside part of mean8.75
Downside part of mean-4.39
Upside SD1.47
Downside SD0.64
N nonnegative terms59
N negative terms72
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.29
Mean of criterion4.36
SD of predictor0.49
SD of criterion1.59
Covariance-0.18
r-0.22
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.72
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)5.29
Mean Square Error2.42
DF error129
t(b)-2.60
p(b)0.64
t(a)2.37
p(a)0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.26
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.77
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.88
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha9.69
Treynor index (mean / b)-6.08
Jensen alpha (a)5.29
VaR(95%)0.13
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.17
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations26
Minimum0.31
Quartile 10.87
Median1.06
Quartile 31.19
Maximum3.48
Mean of quarter 10.72
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.11
Mean of quarter 41.74
Inter Quartile Range0.32
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.31
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high2.69
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.24
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.30
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.48
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.54
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.28
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations588
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.97
Median1
Quartile 31.03
Maximum60353
Mean of quarter 10.90
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 4756.72
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low38
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.77
Number of outliers high45
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high2469.55
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.56
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.24
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.28
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.12
Number of observations131
Minimum0.79
Quartile 10.98
Median1
Quartile 31.03
Maximum1.77
Mean of quarter 10.94
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.14
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low6
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.86
Number of outliers high11
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.31
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.09
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.07
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.25
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.08

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations6
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.14
Median0.27
Quartile 30.33
Maximum0.78
Mean of quarter 10.05
Mean of quarter 20.26
Mean of quarter 30.27
Mean of quarter 40.57
Inter Quartile Range0.19
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.78
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations26
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.03
Median0.09
Quartile 30.27
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.06
Mean of quarter 30.17
Mean of quarter 40.55
Inter Quartile Range0.23
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.80
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.45
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.59
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.69
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.15
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.73
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.95
Number of observations16
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.04
Median0.08
Quartile 30.16
Maximum0.26
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.06
Mean of quarter 30.13
Mean of quarter 40.21
Inter Quartile Range0.12
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.27
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.23
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.25
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.68
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.24
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.46
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-483046784
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)9
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.37
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.89
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.14
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.57
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.64
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.58
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.97
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.97
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.74
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.16
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)15.96
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)79.66
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)302.38
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs386.79
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal471.36

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
EROC1516V5 short10Jul 1, 2015Oct 17, 2015$2,443
RARE1521H100 short10Jun 18, 2015Aug 22, 2015$7,893
CMLP1521T12.5 short40Jun 29, 2015Aug 22, 2015$5,172
BBEP1521T4.5 short20Jul 1, 2015Aug 22, 2015$686
EROC1521T5 short10Jun 30, 2015Aug 22, 2015$2,293
IBB1507H375 short10Jun 30, 2015Aug 8, 2015$6,993
IBB1507H370 short5Jun 30, 2015Aug 8, 2015$4,447
IBB1507H380 short5Jul 7, 2015Aug 8, 2015$2,847
RARE1517G105 short10Jul 9, 2015Jul 18, 2015$6,293
BLUE1517G175 short10Jun 18, 2015Jul 18, 2015$9,993
RARE1517G100 short10Jun 23, 2015Jul 18, 2015$6,493
BLUE1519F180 short5May 26, 2015Jun 20, 2015$9,247
BLUE1519F155 short5May 7, 2015Jun 20, 2015$9,997
IBB short1000Jun 6, 2015Jun 18, 2015($13,785)
IBB1505F360 short10May 21, 2015Jun 6, 2015$7,693
HZNP short1000Apr 18, 2015May 19, 2015($1,235)
BLUE1515E165 short10May 8, 2015May 16, 2015$3,993
HZNP1515E32 short5Apr 24, 2015May 16, 2015$947
HZNP1517D28 short10Apr 9, 2015Apr 18, 2015$443
SCO1510D90 short15Mar 31, 2015Apr 11, 2015$4,040
SPY1527O204.5 short20Mar 25, 2015Mar 28, 2015$1,326
SPY1527O205 short10Mar 26, 2015Mar 28, 2015$647
SCO1527C90 short10Mar 23, 2015Mar 26, 2015$4,936
SCO1520C100 short20Mar 13, 2015Mar 21, 2015($4,627)
SCO1520C95 short50.000999451Mar 12, 2015Mar 21, 2015$11,835
PBA1515Q30 short20Mar 10, 2015Mar 13, 2015($1,028)
CMLP1517P15 short20Mar 13, 2015Mar 13, 2015($728)
EROC1517P5 short20Mar 11, 2015Mar 13, 2015($328)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.