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US OIL Daily Test

Futures · Futures · Started Apr 2019

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-3.9%
Max Drawdown
49.8%
Trades
288
Win Trades
47.9%
Profit Factor
0.90
Win Months
3.3%

About this strategy

Trading Crude Oil Futures based on Daily Signals.

Commodities

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20191.1-1.06.417.8-0.9-1.1-9.3-22.2-7.5-19.8
2020-7.20.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-7.2
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began4/12/2019
Suggested Minimum Capital$40,500
Age90 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades288
# Profitable138
% Profitable47.9%
Avg trade duration12.1 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown49.8%
drawdown periodAug 15, 2019 - Jan 09, 2020
Annual Return (Compounded)-3.9%
Avg win$540
Avg loss$534

Ratios

W:L ratio0.93
Sharpe Ratio-0.42
Sortino Ratio-0.52
Calmar Ratio-0.22

Verified

C2Star0

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life162.1%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-187.3%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-3.9%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-2.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity78.4%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss77.5%
Chance of 20% account loss21.5%
Chance of 30% account loss1.5%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$534
Avg Win$540
# Winners138
Sum Trade PL (losers)$80,153
Sum Trade PL (winners)$74,464
Num Months Winners3
# Losers150
% Winners47.9%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table90

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)728.77
Avg Position Time (hrs)12.15
Avg Trade Length0.50
Last Trade Ago2429

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.95
Daily leverage (max)6.82

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta-0.01
Treynor Index1.76

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-16.73
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.18
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats3.22
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats18.27
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.37
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-0.94
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.06

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.08
SD0.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.29
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.27
df17
t-0.35
p0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.89
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.32
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.88
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.33
Sortino ratio-0.36
Upside Potential Ratio1.01
Upside part of mean0.23
Downside part of mean-0.32
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.23
N nonnegative terms4
N negative terms14
N of observations18
Mean of predictor0.61
Mean of criterion-0.08
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion0.29
Covariance-0.01
r-0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.05
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error16
t(b)-0.29
p(b)0.54
t(a)-0.17
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.53
Treynor index (mean / b)1.41
Jensen alpha (a)-0.05
Mean-0.13
SD0.31
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.41
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.39
df17
t-0.50
p0.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.21
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.99
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.22
Sortino ratio-0.48
Upside Potential Ratio0.84
Upside part of mean0.22
Downside part of mean-0.35
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.27
N nonnegative terms4
N negative terms14
N of observations18
Mean of predictor0.54
Mean of criterion-0.13
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0.31
Covariance-0.01
r-0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.10
Mean Square Error0.10
DF error16
t(b)-0.25
p(b)0.53
t(a)-0.33
p(a)0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.71
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.52
Treynor index (mean / b)2.22
Jensen alpha (a)-0.10
VaR(95%)0.15
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.18
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.16
Mean-0.10
SD0.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.48
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.48
df406
t-0.59
p0.72
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.10
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.05
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.10
Sortino ratio-0.61
Upside Potential Ratio4.51
Upside part of mean0.75
Downside part of mean-0.85
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.17
N nonnegative terms92
N negative terms315
N of observations407
Mean of predictor0.66
Mean of criterion-0.10
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion0.21
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.10
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error405
t(b)-0.29
p(b)0.61
t(a)-0.56
p(a)0.71
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.24
Treynor index (mean / b)11.86
Jensen alpha (a)-0.10
Mean-0.12
SD0.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.58
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.57
df406
t-0.72
p0.76
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.00
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.15
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.00
Sortino ratio-0.72
Upside Potential Ratio4.31
Upside part of mean0.74
Downside part of mean-0.86
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.17
N nonnegative terms92
N negative terms315
N of observations407
Mean of predictor0.59
Mean of criterion-0.12
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion0.21
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.12
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error405
t(b)-0.29
p(b)0.61
t(a)-0.68
p(a)0.75
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.22
Treynor index (mean / b)14.56
Jensen alpha (a)-0.12
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.05
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.44
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.95
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.44
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6807357807919104
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)1.21427936868577e+33
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations18
Minimum0.74
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.15
Mean of quarter 10.91
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.07
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low4
Percentage of outliers low0.22
Mean of outliers low0.89
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.22
Mean of outliers high1.09
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-2.62
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.40
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.14
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.33
Number of observations407
Minimum0.88
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.07
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low93
Percentage of outliers low0.23
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high95
Percentage of outliers high0.23
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.07
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.04
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.10
Median0.18
Quartile 30.27
Maximum0.36
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.36
Inter Quartile Range0.18
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations13
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.41
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.17
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high0.41
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.99
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.17
Expected Shortfall (moments method)32.56
Extreme Value Index (regression method)3.44
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.28
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-425820608
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)147
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.09
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.09
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.26
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.26
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.53
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.09
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.09
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.22
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.54
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-3.32
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 265 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
QCL H0short1Jan 16, 2020Jan 16, 2020($408)
QCL H0short3Jan 16, 2020Jan 16, 2020($624)
QCL H0short3Jan 16, 2020Jan 16, 2020($624)
QCL G0long3Jan 16, 2020Jan 16, 2020$426
QCL G0short3Jan 15, 2020Jan 15, 2020($654)
QCL G0long3Jan 15, 2020Jan 15, 2020($564)
QCL G0long3Jan 15, 2020Jan 15, 2020($594)
QCL G0short3Jan 14, 2020Jan 14, 2020$36
QCL G0long3Jan 14, 2020Jan 14, 2020$276
QM G0short3Jan 14, 2020Jan 14, 2020$126
QCL G0long3Jan 14, 2020Jan 14, 2020$306
QCL G0short3Jan 8, 2020Jan 13, 2020$6,126
QCL G0short3Jan 6, 2020Jan 7, 2020($6,024)
QCL G0short2Dec 30, 2019Dec 30, 2019$1,424
QCL G0short2Dec 27, 2019Dec 27, 2019$884
QCL G0short2Dec 26, 2019Dec 27, 2019($476)
QCL G0long2Dec 24, 2019Dec 25, 2019$884
QCL G0short2Dec 18, 2019Dec 18, 2019($1,176)
QCL F0short3Dec 6, 2019Dec 17, 2019($3,024)
QCL F0short1Dec 1, 2019Dec 4, 2019($998)
QCL F0long3Nov 25, 2019Nov 26, 2019$1,896
QCL F0short3Nov 25, 2019Nov 25, 2019($804)
QCL F0long2Nov 22, 2019Nov 22, 2019($976)
QCL F0long1Nov 22, 2019Nov 22, 2019($408)
QCL F0short3Nov 21, 2019Nov 21, 2019($804)
QCL F0short3Nov 21, 2019Nov 21, 2019($1,284)
QCL F0short3Nov 20, 2019Nov 21, 2019($1,524)
QCL F0short3Nov 20, 2019Nov 20, 2019($804)
QCL F0short3Nov 20, 2019Nov 20, 2019($1,224)
QCL F0long3Nov 19, 2019Nov 19, 2019($804)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.