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Stock Growth

Equity · Stocks · Started Apr 2017

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
24.4%
Max Drawdown
33.4%
Trades
732
Win Trades
57.0%
Profit Factor
3
Win Months
58.8%

Trend-following Momentum

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20172.82.12.3-5.36.2-1.72.07.20.516.5
20180.022.6-2.1-5.90.9-0.6-1.11.9-1.9-2.3-8.7-5.6-5.6
20194.0-4.42.43.3-6.35.5-5.2-1.12.73.4-14.43.1-8.7
202018.25.629.312.94.86.99.8-2.3-9.91.523.17.7165.5
202110.4-7.31.21.94.4-0.53.8-1.3-5.16.6-0.64.117.6
2022-8.4-1.29.3-8.01.0-5.2-0.71.0-10.9-0.17.22.7-14.3
202313.2-8.4-0.5-1.93.3-2.34.72.0-1.5-3.15.72.612.7
2024-4.4-0.95.25.16.0-2.81.13.710.24.8-0.0-3.426.0
20252.77.21.37.88.67.24.71.411.311.5-2.15.590.4
202622.8-9.04.42.1-2.1-8.9-6.715.2-4.98.6

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began4/6/2017
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age115 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades732
# Profitable417
% Profitable57.0%
Avg trade duration59.5 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown33.4%
drawdown periodFeb 27, 2018 - Dec 03, 2019
Annual Return (Compounded)24.4%
Avg win$1,231
Avg loss$548

Ratios

W:L ratio3.03
Sharpe Ratio0.83
Sortino Ratio1.39
Calmar Ratio2.08

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.28
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life226.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)465.3%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)24.4%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)24.5%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity13.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.1%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss61.0%
Chance of 20% account loss15.0%
Chance of 30% account loss2.5%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$548
Avg Win$1,231
# Winners417
Sum Trade PL (losers)$172,727
Sum Trade PL (winners)$513,317
Num Months Winners68
# Losers315
% Winners57.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct9641

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table114

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)85723.38
Avg Position Time (hrs)1428.72
Avg Trade Length59.50
Last Trade Ago2073

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)0.96
Daily leverage (max)2.83

Regression

Alpha0.05
Beta0.36
Treynor Index0.17

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades1.09
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.09
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats54.55
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats29.82
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.22
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.46
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.66

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.57
SD0.50
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.13
df50
t2.37
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.12
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.15
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.11
Sortino ratio4.60
Upside Potential Ratio6.23
Upside part of mean0.77
Downside part of mean-0.20
Upside SD0.51
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms33
N negative terms18
N of observations51
Mean of predictor0.25
Mean of criterion0.57
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.50
Covariance0.03
r0.28
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.64
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.41
Mean Square Error0.23
DF error49
t(b)2.06
p(b)0.02
t(a)1.66
p(a)0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.91
Treynor index (mean / b)0.89
Jensen alpha (a)0.41
Mean0.47
SD0.40
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.17
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.15
df50
t2.41
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.14
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.18
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.13
Sortino ratio3.60
Upside Potential Ratio5.21
Upside part of mean0.68
Downside part of mean-0.21
Upside SD0.40
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms33
N negative terms18
N of observations51
Mean of predictor0.23
Mean of criterion0.47
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.40
Covariance0.02
r0.24
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.44
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.37
Mean Square Error0.16
DF error49
t(b)1.70
p(b)0.05
t(a)1.86
p(a)0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.96
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.77
Treynor index (mean / b)1.07
Jensen alpha (a)0.37
VaR(95%)0.14
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.18
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean0.50
SD0.32
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.54
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.54
df1125
t3.19
p0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.59
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.49
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.59
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.48
Sortino ratio2.59
Upside Potential Ratio9.08
Upside part of mean1.75
Downside part of mean-1.25
Upside SD0.26
Downside SD0.19
N nonnegative terms589
N negative terms537
N of observations1126
Mean of predictor0.28
Mean of criterion0.50
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.32
Covariance0.02
r0.30
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.38
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.39
Mean Square Error0.10
DF error1124
t(b)10.50
p(b)0.35
t(a)2.62
p(a)0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.69
Treynor index (mean / b)1.32
Jensen alpha (a)0.39
Mean0.45
SD0.32
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.39
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.39
df1125
t2.89
p0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.34
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.44
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.34
Sortino ratio2.25
Upside Potential Ratio8.66
Upside part of mean1.72
Downside part of mean-1.27
Upside SD0.25
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms589
N negative terms537
N of observations1126
Mean of predictor0.25
Mean of criterion0.45
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.32
Covariance0.02
r0.30
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.38
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.35
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error1124
t(b)10.62
p(b)0.35
t(a)2.39
p(a)0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.64
Treynor index (mean / b)1.19
Jensen alpha (a)0.35
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean2.01
SD0.69
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.91
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.89
df130
t2.06
p0.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.70
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.10
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.69
Sortino ratio4.90
Upside Potential Ratio12.73
Upside part of mean5.23
Downside part of mean-3.22
Upside SD0.57
Downside SD0.41
N nonnegative terms77
N negative terms54
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.29
Mean of criterion2.01
SD of predictor0.43
SD of criterion0.69
Covariance0.15
r0.52
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.85
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.91
Mean Square Error0.35
DF error129
t(b)6.99
p(b)0.18
t(a)1.07
p(a)0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.77
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.60
Treynor index (mean / b)2.36
Jensen alpha (a)0.91
Mean1.77
SD0.68
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.59
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.57
df130
t1.83
p0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.37
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.22
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.36
Sortino ratio4.16
Upside Potential Ratio11.91
Upside part of mean5.08
Downside part of mean-3.31
Upside SD0.54
Downside SD0.43
N nonnegative terms77
N negative terms54
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.20
Mean of criterion1.77
SD of predictor0.43
SD of criterion0.68
Covariance0.16
r0.53
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.86
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.74
Mean Square Error0.34
DF error129
t(b)7.17
p(b)0.18
t(a)0.89
p(a)0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.62
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.91
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.39
Treynor index (mean / b)2.06
Jensen alpha (a)0.74
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations51
Minimum0.87
Quartile 10.98
Median1.02
Quartile 31.08
Maximum1.84
Mean of quarter 10.94
Mean of quarter 21.01
Mean of quarter 31.05
Mean of quarter 41.20
Inter Quartile Range0.10
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.49
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.18
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.09
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.18
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06
Number of observations1126
Minimum0.88
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.16
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low66
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high85
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.45
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.22
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations131
Minimum0.88
Quartile 10.98
Median1.01
Quartile 31.03
Maximum1.16
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 41.06
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.01
Mean of outliers low0.88
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.13
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.30
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.05
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.29
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations9
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.03
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.27
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.20
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.22
Mean of outliers high0.20
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-6.15
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.11
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.30
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.32
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.40
Number of observations44
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.29
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.13
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high7
Percentage of outliers high0.16
Mean of outliers high0.18
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.34
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.24
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.38
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.14
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.26
Number of observations10
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.03
Median0.04
Quartile 30.09
Maximum0.23
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.04
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.17
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.21
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-23.87
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.18
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.18
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-2.02
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.29
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.30
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-440563200
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)644
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.8%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.71
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.64
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.38
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs3.22
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal3.58
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.56
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.61
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.08
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs4.68
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal15.82
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)2.92
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)5.04
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)21.67
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs28.92
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal65.29

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
GME short100Jan 14, 2021Jan 15, 2021$558
INO long100Jul 24, 2020Dec 23, 2020($1,200)
AXSM long80Jul 20, 2020Dec 23, 2020$78
CODX long200Nov 20, 2020Dec 1, 2020($64)
NVAX long80Sep 2, 2020Nov 16, 2020($522)
AA long400Aug 6, 2020Nov 16, 2020$768
FCX long300Oct 12, 2020Oct 29, 2020$141
CORN long500Sep 17, 2020Oct 29, 2020$115
SOYB long500Sep 17, 2020Oct 29, 2020($5)
NIO long300Sep 2, 2020Oct 12, 2020$633
UAVS long3600Jul 20, 2020Oct 1, 2020($3,553)
CRVS long500Sep 10, 2020Sep 16, 2020$315
UNFI long400Sep 11, 2020Sep 16, 2020$32
PFE long300Aug 21, 2020Sep 10, 2020($867)
SOYB long500Aug 24, 2020Sep 10, 2020$435
SPY short50Aug 26, 2020Sep 2, 2020($541)
TSLA short2Aug 28, 2020Aug 28, 2020$141
TSLA short1Aug 20, 2020Aug 25, 2020$13
WDC long150Aug 20, 2020Aug 24, 2020$47
HUYA long200Aug 12, 2020Aug 19, 2020$42
TSLA short2Aug 18, 2020Aug 19, 2020$116
TWTR long300Aug 17, 2020Aug 18, 2020$117
KODK long200Aug 5, 2020Aug 5, 2020($282)
SRNE long300Aug 5, 2020Aug 5, 2020($417)
KODK short50Jul 30, 2020Jul 31, 2020$627
FB short20Jul 30, 2020Jul 31, 2020($433)
TSLA short2Jul 28, 2020Jul 30, 2020$51
QCOM short50Jul 29, 2020Jul 30, 2020($442)
ALB long50Jul 16, 2020Jul 24, 2020$42
CMG short3Jul 22, 2020Jul 23, 2020($27)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.